2010-05-25

Grekland, Irland och Euron

Marshall Auerback anser att det i grunden är ett konstruktionsfel i EMU/Euron.



Här är ett par artiklar som noterar att Irland som har stor skillnad mellan BNP och BNI, dvs BNI är ca 20% lägre än BNP, dvs 20% är vinster som går direkt till utlandet. Justerat för detta blir de relativa underskotten och skuldnivån betydligt högre.


Irish Miracle — or Mirage? - economix.blogs.nytimes.com
"... Ireland was one of the first nations to introduce tough fiscal austerity in this cycle — in spring 2009 the government slashed public-sector spending and raised taxes. Despite the cuts, the European Commission forecasts that Ireland will have one of the highest budget deficits in the world at 11.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. The problem is clear: when you cut spending you also lose tax revenues from people who earned incomes from that money. Further, the newly unemployed seek benefits, so Ireland’s spending cuts in one category are partly offset by more spending in another. Without growth, the budget deficit still looms large."
...
When we adjust Ireland’s figures accordingly, the situation is dire. The budget deficit was about 17.9 percent of G.N.P. in 2009, and based on European Commission projections (and assuming the G.N.P.-G.D.P. gap remains the same) it will be roughly 14.6 percent in 2010 and 15.1 percent in 2011,...
...
Finally, the Irish need to consider seriously whether being in the euro zone is worth the cost. The adjustment to this awful situation would be far easier outside the euro zone ...
...
it is no wonder the markets are looking with skepticism at the announced bailout package for the entire euro zone provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Policy makers are still not dealing with the core problems of each nation in the euro zone. ...


The sick Celtic Tiger getting sicker
But Ireland might soon be back on the main screen because despite all the IMF and EU predictions about the adjustment path that would accompany the austerity (things would get better relatively quickly), things have become worse. Just as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) would predict. And when you analyse the data in more detail, they are looking a lot worse than Greece. This also just exposes that the problem is [not] the deficit and debt ratios but the fundamental design of the Euro system and the fiscal rules it forces onto member states.
...


Artiklarna ser likheten i vad som nu rekommenderas för EU med Latinamerikas förlorade decennium när IMFs nyliberala åtstramningspaket ströp tillväxten. Där kan man notera att det jämnade vägen för en rad vänsterregimer i protest mot den nykonservativa ideologin.


Man blir kanske inte förvånad men nog är det konstigt att man hos ett antal människor som t.ex. i Fox inslaget med Michael Auerbak, som arbetar i finansbranschen, finner idéer om samhället och ekonomin som är så pass progressiva att de skulle vara omöjliga i det som ska föreställa ett vänsteralternativ i vårt kommande val.

 

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