2011-02-13

Militärkupp?

stratfor.com skrev den 10:e att Mubaraks tal samma dag skulle ha kommit som en chock för militären och Washington. CIA bossen Leon Panetta hade tidigare uttalat sig som om Mubaraks avgång var given, källor i Kairo likaså. Detta lämnade militären 3 alternativ, ett att stå tillbaks och låta demonstrationerna växa, två att gå in med mer militär och blockera att demonstrationerna växte, tre att göra en regelrätt kupp.

Den 11:e efter Suleiman meddelat Mubaraks avgång ansåg stratfor.com att detta var en klar indikation att militären valt det tredje alternativet med försvarsministern och fältmarskalken Mohammed Hussein Tantawi i ledningen.

stratfor.com menar att militären inte brydde sig om Mubarak utan vill bevara den ordning som grundades av Nasser och de sk fria officerarna. För tillfället har man faktiskt återgått till ordningen 1952 där staten styrs av en rådsförsamling av officerare. Så nu är frågan i vilken utsträckning dessa officerare kommer att respektera de löften om demokratiska val och civilt styre senast i september.

Nu har arméofficerarna upplöst Egyptens parlament och undanröjt konstitution. Polisen har fått lönehöjning.

En inte allt för vågad gissning är att militären gör vad de kan föra att få till ett ”civilt” alternativ som de kan leva med om det blir verkliga demokratiska val i september.
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<div class="indrPost">“<em>The military is expected on Monday to ban meetings by labor unions or professional syndicates, effectively forbidding strikes, and to tell all Egyptians to get back to work.

There will also be a warning from the military against those who create "chaos and disorder," an army source said, adding the army would, however, acknowledge the right to protest.</em>
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110213/wl_nm/us_egypt

Vad det är för källa kan man fråga sig, men en viss försiktighet med att förklara den fredliga revolutionen framgångsrik är nog ändå på sin plats.

Kan fredliga revolutioner verkligen ändra på de fundamentala maktförhållandena? Franska, Ryska, Amerikanska, Kinesiska, Iranska revolutionerna ändrade radikalt på maktförhållandena och kastade ut det tidigare styrande, ingen av dessa var fredlig. Är inte risken med de fredliga att det mest blir en halvdan ansiktslyftning när tärningarna slutat rulla.

Var det Gandhi  och icke våld som körde ut britterna eller var det ett imploderat imperium som varken hade ekonomi, styrka eller stöd hemma som monterade ner sitt imperium?</div>

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De egyptiska revolutionärerna försöket kartlägga familjen Mubaraks tillgångar:
google spreadsheet documenting Mubarak's wealth. - spreadsheets.google.com 


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“Ok, first of all, the Muslim Brotherhood has maybe 4 million people including supporters, families & sympathizers. Not a threat.
about 5 hours ago via web Retweeted by 40 people “
Sandmonkey

“Secondly, The MB were already burned in the last election. Had Mubarak not fixed it, they would've lost many seats anyway
about 5 hours ago via web Retweeted by 18 people “
Sandmonkey
Mahmoud Salem
http://twitter.com/Sandmonkey/statuses/37141129937817600

Great work happening on the google spreadsheet documenting Mubarak's wealth. The wiki-page will be up tonite!
#jan25

Here is the link to the spreadsheets again: http://tinyurl.com/6h7njxg

The Army is taking pictures and recording videos of the protesters in Tahrir. Should we be worried? #jan25
12:24 PM Feb 13th via web

3awadalla @Sandmonkey This happened to us while were in Korba on Friday night celebrating. We were astonished too. They has SLR cameras!
12:26 PM Feb 13th via web in reply to Sandmonkey Retweeted by Sandmonkey and 22 others

If u r in heliopolis come and join us in korba. At starbucks. Alcohol for everyone. #jan25 7:10 PM Feb 11th via Twitter for BlackBerry®

@WilYaWil join us at starbucks elkorba. Drinks all around

We just handed out beer to everyone in the street. Revolution korba is toasting mubarak's departure :) #jan25

@LaraHuneidi come jiin us at starbucks korba. We are getting drunk #jan25

My aunt-who lives next to Mubarak- told me the guards started firing in celebration the moment he left. REVOLUTION! #JAN25
8:20 PM Feb 11th via web

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Islamist revolution?


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http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/08/egypt-imf


"And yet a newly-published report from the Egyptian government’s investment authority, GAFI, is one of the most significant and explosive pieces of writing to appear anywhere in the Middle East in recent years.

It doesn’t mention the Muslim Brotherhood, or antisemitism, or artificial hymens, and so far it has garnered precisely zero coverage in the international press. What it does do is address an issue which day in, day out, shapes the lives of the vast majority of Egypt’s population and hundreds of millions of others beyond its borders.

The report systematically destroys the myths and distortions that have driven the country’s economic policy for the last two decades – the same myths and distortions which have set the development path for numerous other countries in the Global South – and shatters the illusion that soaring economic growth rates have anything to do with widespread, sustainable social prosperity.

Since 1991, the year Egypt yoked itself to an IMF structural adjustment programme and embarked on a series of wide-ranging economic reforms, the country has been something of a poster child for neoliberal economists who point to its remarkable levels of annual GDP growth as proof that “Washington consensus” blueprints for the developing world can work.

[….]

So Egypt is now a glitzier, more prosperous land with pharaonic-style riches to match its pharaonic-style leader (now entering his 29th year in power). Except, as the GAFI report inconveniently points out, 90% of the country has yet to see any of the bounty. Foreign investment has been largely channelled into sectors like finance and gas which create few new jobs. While national resources like natural gas have been sold at subsidised rates to the tycoon owners of iron and fertiliser factories, the cost of ordinary commodities like bread and cooking oil has spiralled. In fact since the IMF began hauling Egypt’s economy into modernity, Egyptians have got steadily and dramatically poorer: when structural adjustment began 20% of the population were living on less than (inflation-adjusted) $2 a day; today, that figure stands at 44%. In the past decade, when GDP growth was at its strongest, absolute poverty has climbed from 16.7% to almost 20%. Chomsky called neoliberalism “capitalism with the gloves off”; it’s hard, looking at this jumble of statistics, to discern anything but a shameless hit-and-run job perpetrated by a tiny band of Egypt’s business elite.

Of course this isn’t the first time that conservative economic theory has proved to have a catastrophic effect on the lives of ordinary people, especially in poorer countries, but this report – sponsored by the very government it criticises – is a particularly powerful example of just how dangerously flawed the idea is that making the rich richer can be a engine of society-wide economic progress."

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