2011-02-11

Världen styrs med ringa vishet

IEOIMF:s “Independent Evaluation Office” har kommit med en rapport som är ganska kritisk till hur IMF fungerar.

IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004-07


Här är en kritisk granskning av rapporten, IMF och de nyliberala dogmerna:

The IMF – incompetent, biased and culpable
“On February 11, 2011, the IMF’s independent evaluation unit – Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) – released a report – IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2004-07 – which presents a scathing attack on the Washington-based institution. …”

IEO finner att …
… finds that the IMF provided few clear warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with the impending crisis before its outbreak. The banner message was one of continued optimism … The belief that financial markets were fundamentally sound and that large financial institutions could weather any likely problem lessened the sense of urgency to address risks or to worry about possible severe adverse outcomes.

IEO menar att inkompetensen beror på …
The IMF’s ability to correctly identify the mounting risks was hindered by a high degree of groupthink, intellectual capture, a general mindset that a major financial crisis in large advanced economies was unlikely, and inadequate analytical approaches. Weak internal governance, lack of incentives to work across units and raise contrarian views, and a review process that did not “connect the dots” or ensure follow-up also played an important role, while political constraints may have also had some impact.

Eller som vanligt folk skulle ha uttryckt det, en samling smilfinkar som aldrig ifrågasätter någonting av de påbjudna dogmerna utan som lydiga pudlar frågar hur högt de ska hoppa när ideologin har talat.

IEO säger det alla redan vet …
… there is ample evidence that IMF projections, as with other macroeconomic projections, are quite inaccurate.

IEO om IMF och Island …
In spite of a banking sector that had grown from about 100 percent of GDP in 2003 to almost 1,000 percent of GDP, financial sector issues were not the focal point of the 2007 Article IV discussions. The massive size of the banking sector was noted, but this was not highlighted as a key vulnerability that needed to be addressed urgently.

Instead, the IMF worried about the possibility of overheating, and the staff report was sanguine about Iceland’s overall prospects. For example, the headline sentences in the staff appraisal were “Iceland’s medium term prospects remain enviable. Open and flexible markets, sound institutions … have enabled Iceland to benefit from the opportunities afforded by globalization.”

The report presented a positive picture of the banking sector itself, noting that “the banking sector appears well-placed to withstand significant credit and market shocks” and “[B]anks took important steps over the past year to reduce vulnerabilities and increase resilience.”

The prevailing view among IMF staff—a cohesive group of macroeconomists—was that market discipline and self-regulation would be sufficient to stave off serious problems in financial institutions. They also believed that crises were unlikely to happen in advanced economies, where “sophisticated” financial markets could thrive safely with minimal regulation of a large and growing portion of the financial system.
Säger IEO



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2 comments:

Kerstin sa...

Jaha, och ändrar IMF sin policy och sina rekommendationer (eg. krav) efter denna analys tro? Vi tror nog inte det.

Teckentydaren sa...

Nä det är väl inte så troligt, det är svårt att lära gamla hundar sitta. I början av finanskrisen kom där en del signaler om att de förespråkade en annan policy än vanligt, en del som på tex Arena ville göra gällande att vi nu såg ett nytt IMF. Men det var bara en tillfällig sinnesförvirring när krisen hade tagit dem på sängen, IMF var snart sitt gamla vanliga jag igen.

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