2011-10-25

Trojkans diagnos

efter medicinering av Grekland med deras framgångsrecept har läckt ut,

Greece: Debt Sustainability Analysis - October 21, 2011


Man får använda närmast ett kafkaliknade orwelliskt språk för att inte rent ut säga att det varit en katastrof.
“Since the fourth review, the situation in Greece has taken a turn for the worse, with the economy increasingly adjusting through recession and related wage-price channels, rather than through structural reform driven increases in productivity. …”
troika.pdf
I dokumentet kan man notera den nya tid vi lever i, folket är kuvande och ingår inte i den ekonomiska ekvationen, ordet arbetslöshet nämns inte en enda gång i dokumentet. Arbetslöshet är ett icke bekymmer i Troikans omvärldsanalys och bild av samhället, den ingår inte i den sk ”berättelsen”.

Man har svart på vitt erkänt sitt totala misslyckande och att vad man gjort handlat om ekonomiskt fullskaleexperiment.

Nu kämpar man med näbbar och klor för att utsätta Italien för samma misslyckade recept. Snart återstår bara våld för folk i Europa om de ska kunna avsätta dessa veritabla vettvillingar som nu styr Europa.

Ekonomi och skandalreportrarna i mallig självrättfärdig riksmedia har naturligtvis som hungriga drevvargar kastat sig över denna rapport där det europiska ledargarnityret klär av sig själva?

Men det kanske inte var någon riktig nyhet, i vart fall inte som Juholts traktamente. Här spenderade mallig riksmedia förmodligen 10-tals miljoner för att bevaka denna världshändelse. Varje komma, varje Juholtsk stavelse och min analyseras av ledande akademisk expertis på detta.



Trojkan i full travgalopp med marknaden de sk investerarna på kuskbocken och ett fast grepp om tömmarna och piskan. Normalt sett i ekonomispråk är investering något som avser att bygga produktiv kapacitet, i det nya orwelliska språkbruket kallas gamblers och spekulanter för investerare som folket och politikerna ska göra allt för att hålla på gott humör.


Bill Mitchell ekonomiprofessor tolkar rapporten:
 ...
  1. Our models are so poor and our understanding of macroeconomics is so ideologically tainted that we were in denial of the obvious – that imposing harsh public spending cuts at a time the Greek economy was contracting due to a collapse in private spending would worsen the recession and undermine the capacity of the economy to enjoy increased productivity

  2. All our forecasts were wrong – the situation is much worse and poverty and unemployment is rising and the savings of many private citizens are being wiped out directly because of our mistakes.

  3. We have no real understanding of why this happened but the data is clearly showing all our predictions were wrong and what we said wouldn’t happen happened.

  4. We had no historical precedent for imposing such a harsh multi-dimensioned program of austerity on Greece – but, hey, a few million Greeks, what do they matter. The experiment will provide us with experience for future policy advice.

The prose is fascinating – “the economy increasingly adjusting through recession and related wage-price channels, rather than through structural reform-driven increases in productivity”.

The economic advice the EU bosses have been getting in these briefing documents clearly held out that all they had to do was cut government spending, flog off all the public assets, cut workers wages and pensions, allow the unemployment rate to increase and – hey presto – productivity will boom and the increased external competitiveness will see an export-led growth boom.

That might work out in textbooks written by free market economists who have no understanding of human psychology and the impact of unemployment and harsh spending cuts on innovation and spending nor who seem to understand that when all your trading partners are also contracting or barely growing then no matter how “cheap” your exports become – exports are not going to boom.


William K. Black en ekonomi och juridik professor sammanfattar rapporten:
 ...
if this memo is representative the Troika must be choking to death on its jargon, theoclassical economics dogma, and its propaganda. In plain English, the memo concludes:

  1. Greece’s economy is crashing

  2. Our claim that the “reforms” we were imposing would cause productivity improvements that would drive a robust recovery has proven false

  3. Our prediction that the Greek economy would improve and allow Greece to repay its debts is inoperative

  4. Our new prediction is that Greek debt will remain dangerously high for the length of our prediction (through 2030)

  5. If anything nasty happens to the economy during the next 20 years Greece will be unable to repay its debt

  6. Only long-term bail outs and requiring Greece’s creditors to take substantial losses can make it possible for Greece to avoid collapse

Those admissions, while striking, are not the Troika’s most important admission. Note that the Troika’s first paragraph contains the remarkable phrase that Greece is “adjusting through recession.”
(…)
The Troika has not given up one of their central myths even though it is one of the most pernicious myths in the last 80 years. It is one that Keynes (and reality) disproved long ago. The Troika believes that if Greece fell into a deeper recession it would recover more quickly because of the recession. The “logic” is that severe recessions lead to sharp drops in working class wages, which makes the nation far more competitive, which expands its exports, which accelerates Greece’s recovery under the Troika’s new model.

“To model this it is assumed that through much deeper recession and deflation the competitiveness gap is unwound by 2017, instead of during the next decade. The headwinds from the deeper recession are assumed to delay the achievement of fiscal and privatization policy targets by three years.

As the economy rapidly shrinks, debt would reach extremely high levels in the short run at 208 percent of GDP. If Greece could weather the shock to confidence this could create, the eventual more rapid recovery of the economy would help bring debt back down towards the revised baseline path….”

This passage “explains” the Troika’s use of the phrase “adjusting through recession.” We can now see what a chilling phrase it is and how little empathy the Troika has for human beings who are suffering.

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